“Global growth prospects have darkened”wrote the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in a report released Monday and titled “pay the price of war”.
The lack of calm on the ground in the eighth month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, symbolized by the recent mobilization of reservists by Moscow, encourages the international organization to be pessimistic about the near future of the economy.
After a trying year 2022 for households and businesses, especially due to the resulting surge in inflation, “Global growth is expected to continue to weaken in 2023”underlines the institution based in Paris.
It expects global GDP to grow by 2.2% against 2.8% anticipated in previous forecasts in June, although it has maintained its forecast for this year at 3% after having reduced it significantly in recent years. month.
“Inflationary pressures are increasingly broad-based, with rising energy, transport and other costs impacting prices”underlines the OECD, which has revised downwards its 2023 forecasts for almost all G20 member countries with the exception of Turkey, Indonesia and the United Kingdom, whose economy will experience stagnation.
A shock to 2,800 billion
To show the magnitude of the shock of the war on the world economy, the OECD has estimated the financial losses to be expected next year at 2,800 billion dollars compared to forecasts prior to the arrival of tanks in Ukraine.
It is logically the neighboring countries of kyiv and Moscow that will suffer the most significant costs according to the OECD: growth in the euro zone is undergoing the most significant revision of all the regions of the world with growth expected at 0.3 % against 1.6% expected in June. The main reason is soaring energy prices, with inflation expected this year at 8.1% and 6.2% next year.
Hailed for months as a major risk by the main world forecasters, the recession is the scenario anticipated by the OECD for Germany: the first European economy would see, according to the OECD, its GDP fall by 0.7% next year. , a dip of 2.4 points compared to the previous forecast.
Its main neighbors escape it: growth of 0.4% is expected in Italy, 1.5% in Spain, and 0.6% in France, where the government is still counting on 1%.
For its part, the International Monetary Fund forecast in its latest forecasts dating back to July 0.8% growth in Germany, 1% in France and 1.2% in the euro zone, but it could revise its forecasts downwards in October.
Among the other major regions, US growth is expected by the OECD at 0.5% against 1.2% expected in June, and Chinese growth at 4.7% against 4.9%.
“Substantial uncertainty surrounds these economic projections”, concedes the OECD, especially given the risk of energy shortages during the winter. The vertiginous rise in prices is already threatening the activity of a growing number of companies, some of which are forced to reduce their activity.
According to the organization, shortages greater than expected in gas could have a cascading effect of reducing the GDP of the euro zone by an additional 1.25 points next year, which would then push many States into recession.
This scenario is all the more worrying as the central banks of developed and emerging countries are firmly committed to raising their interest rates to contain inflation, with the risk of undermining growth there too.
The rate hikes are “a key factor” in the current slowdown, notes the OECD, which, however, calls on central bankers to continue, to avoid raising them more strongly if inflation continues to soar.
Targeted and temporary budgetary measures to households and businesses are part of the solution to the emergency, the institution underlines, affirming that so far the measures taken against the rise in energy prices have been “poorly targeted” because often benefiting too many households and businesses.