The first reason for the price increase is the war in Ukraine and the resulting supply difficulties. The price curve exploded six months ago, at the start of the invasion, and then experienced a slight lull. A moment of respite that is unfortunately over. “SIf we look at the price curve, we have returned to the record of what happened in March during the first invasion, the first action of war”, analyzes Francesco Contino. He details two reasons which can explain this rebound.
The first, according to him, is the approach of winter. “, It’s quite human. Summer is always conducive to reducing costs and prices because we have more renewable production, there is a little less stress, we ask ourselves a little less questions. Then there is the return to reality after the summer, the return to a more active life. Anticipation of winter usually causes prices to rise right after summer.”
The second reason? Bad luck and weather conditions. “There’s a whole series of events that happened, a kind of perfect storm of fairly rare events that happened together, related to climate change and the drought that we experienced: less energy production which comes from Norway, production problems in France and Germany, etc. All of this put together therefore means that prices are rising for the moment and that there is tension on the market for natural gas, but also for all energy resources”, he observes.